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A rash of fires has been plaguing a neighborhood of the city where you work as a psychologist and criminal profiler. After determining that all three were deliberately set, investigators discover traces of the same accelerant (the substance used to fuel the fire) at each of the crime scenes.

It looks as though they have a serial arsonist on their hands -- and they want your help in catching him before someone gets hurt. At least, you must assume it's a male, since the vast majority of arsonists are male.

After examining the evidence of a crime, profilers must determine who most likely committed it. Then they have to convey that information in a meaningful way.

"Communications skills are vital," says Brent Turvey. He is the author of a textbook on criminal profiling. "You have to be able to form compelling arguments, based on logic and reason, and then you must successfully communicate them. If you don't, eventually, you're going to be found out."

Say you're serving as an expert witness at court. "The jury is not going to listen to you if you're testifying and not communicating well," Turvey says.

Or say a law enforcement agency publicly releases a profile in hopes that someone will recognize the perpetrator. No matter how accurate, a poorly presented profile will have far less of an impact than one that is expertly communicated.

You begin by studying the three crime scenes. The arsonist set his first known fire in a dumpster outside of a chic nightclub shortly after it closed for the night. He set the second one during the early morning hours in a recently closed hospital sometimes used by squatters. Luckily, nobody was there at the time.

Lastly and most dramatically, he set fire to a historic home while the couple who lived there slept. They managed to escape, but lost everything in the blaze.

You recognize a familiar pattern. Serial arsonists will often start small, setting fire to a tree, for instance, or to junk in a dumpster. As the initial thrill wears off, they seek out more challenging targets, such as unoccupied buildings.

As that, too, grows less exciting, they move on to occupied buildings -- knowing that someone could be injured, or worse, in the process.

A closer inspection of the arsonist's MO shows that he is an opportunist. The dumpster behind the nightclub was full of flammable materials, like paper and wood. So was the abandoned hospital, where he began the fire on a mattress left by squatters.

This suggests to you that the arsonist's initial motive was excitement. Setting fires gave him a charge. He may well have hung around the crime scene watching the blazes he started and the ensuing commotion that he created.

A more disturbing trend emerges in his selection of the abandoned hospital as a second target. Many dangerous offenders prey on the vulnerable -- in this case, the homeless -- in order to gain a sense of power.

Other motives seem to have been behind the fire at the home, which bears all the hallmarks of a well-planned crime. It appears that the arsonist initially threw a rock through the ground-level kitchen window, shattering the glass and leaving a gaping hole, through which he tossed accelerant-doused rags and a match to light them.

While the other two crimes occurred within walking distance of each other, the third fire took place several miles away.

In each of the three cases, the arsonist used the same expensive lighter fluid as an accelerant. This suggests to you that he is not content to simply light a match and start a fire. He wants to feel in control of the blaze and how it spreads.

Although for the third case, you'd like to do a more thorough victimology -- that is, a study of the victims -- you sketch out what you've learned so far about the perpetrator in a few short paragraphs.

"One of the most important skills you can have as a profiler is the ability to do research and write a report," says Turvey. Though many profilers do not write out reports, preferring to give a verbal assessment based on notes, he believes that "writing skills are absolutely necessary if you want to do a good job."

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