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Real-Life Math

Math does play a role in hostage negotiations. During a hostage incident, simple math calculations can be used to estimate a variety of things.

These can include figuring out how long a barricaded subject might last without food or water. There can also be situations where a negotiator might need to make a hasty calculation based on shots fired in an incident.

In a situation like this, the negotiator could potentially estimate the number of bullets a suspect may have left. The negotiator would then be able to make a better decision as to when to send in the SWAT team.

Theodore B. Feldmann is an associate professor in psychiatry and behavioral sciences at the University of Louisville. He received training in hostage negotiation at the FBI Academy and is considered an expert in hostage negotiation and crisis management.

The following is taken from Feldmann's paper, entitled Characteristics of Hostage and Barricade Incidents: Implications for Negotiation Strategies and Training. It shows how Feldmann categorized a total of 120 hostage incidents taken from police files.

Categorization of Incidents

Six categories of hostage-barricade incidents with distinct characteristics were identified (see Table 6):

  • Persons involved in personal or domestic disputes (30.8%)
  • Dubjects involved in other criminal acts, such as robbery attempts (25.8%)
  • Mentally ill persons for whom no other motivation was present (19.2%)
  • Incidents associated with workplace violence (11.7%)
  • Alcohol or drug related incidents (7.5%)
  • Students (5%)

In this excerpt, there is a reference to Table 6 in his paper. Pretend you are a hostage negotiator consultant to the FBI. You must prepare an easy-to-read table to help FBI negotiators better understand who is involved in the most common types of hostage incidents.

Your Table 6 must contain 3 columns: Category, Number of Incidents and Percentage. You will need to calculate the total number of incidents in each category from the percentages provided in the excerpt, based on the total number of incidents, which is 120.

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