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Real-Life Decision Making

You're leading a group of 15 smokejumpers into a dangerous forest fire. Strong winds are whipping through the canyon where it's burning. The wind makes parachuting into the area dangerous. But most of all, it increases the chances that the fire will jump over the area where you're fighting it, essentially surrounding your team with a wall of fire.

You keep an eye on the latest weather reports and on reports from fire spotters in the field. The winds are expected to diminish in 24 hours. You could hold your team back that long. However, fire experts predict the fire will reach a neighborhood with dozens of homes near the edge of the woods within that time.

You meet with team members and explain the situation. They're willing to take the risk -- they're here to fight the fire. Then you head off to think about your options. You have 15 minutes to make a decision.

You can wait a day for the wind to subside and battle the blaze as best you can after that. Or send the full team in now -- the risk is very real but you also have confidence in your team's ability to get the job done. The other option is to send in two smaller teams that could move more quickly. They could take a single helicopter instead of two and carry less gear. The teams could work shorter shifts.

What do you do?

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