Do trend forecasters really know what the next big hit will be?
"I tell them I don't know," says Jayne Mountford. She is a fashion forecaster
in New York. "And they say, 'But you're a trend forecaster, you're supposed
to know.'"
There's a difference between predicting that something will be popular
and knowing it will become a huge consumer hit. "You can track trends, but
you can't predict what's going to be a fad," she says. "I can't tell you what
the next big thing is going to be."
As far as trends go, Mountford earns a living predicting the sorts of clothing
people will want to wear in the future.
So how exactly did Mountford know this? She says that understanding socio-economic
conditions is key to trend forecasting. "You have to start by looking at socio-economic
trends," she says.
Socio-economics is the study of anything concerned with the interaction
of social and economic factors. For example, this could mean studying how
education levels or income levels affect consumer choice.
Forecasters conduct surveys and polls to find out what consumers are purchasing
and may want to purchase in the future. But even after all these facts and
statistics have been gathered and analyzed, someone still has to make a decision
on what they really think people will want to wear.
"The thing about fashion forecasting is that sooner or later, it's going
to come down to subjective opinion," says Mountford. "You have to predict
trends in a qualitative way and eyeball a number of different things. You
have to grasp the information to determine trends of the time."
Wendy Carmona is a fashion forecaster in Los Angeles. She says that computers
and the Internet are helping forecasters judge people's choices and fashion
trends. "I visit many websites, such as one put up by a teenager that reviews
fashion trends," she says. "It helps me keep in touch much faster."
Carmona says that the computer has also sped up the pace at which forecasters
have to work. "Soon after all the runway shows, the images are e-mailed to
people and are available to the general public on the Internet," she says.
"We have to get that information even faster, before it's seen by the public,"
she says. Instead of sending clients sketches of fashion trends every few
months, forecasters are now sending sketches every week. "Everything is faster.
Once the client has the sketches, they can quickly alter them and get into
production."
Cosimo Agostino is a fashion instructor. He says that many of the trends
are still set in Europe and large American cities. "The trends are set by
big name designers and manufacturers in Milan, New York, [and] Los Angeles,"
he says.
Of course, someone has to wade through the fashions seen on the runways
to figure out what ordinary people will want to wear. "Forecasters follow
the same patterns, looking for what will appeal to specific consumers and
local markets."
Agostino says that many of the people working in this industry are women.
"In my class, there are two or three men out of a total of 44 students." But
he says this isn't because it's an industry only for women.
"It's partly a local thing," he says. "If you go to Europe, you'll find
a lot more men. When I was learning in Italy, the class was all male."
Agostino encourages anyone who has a real passion for fashion to enter
the industry. "For many, these courses are part of a life learning experience
and a fulfillment of students' dreams," he says.
As the economy goes global, people are becoming more aware of the need
for trend forecasters. Mountford likens her job to a financial advisor working
on the stock exchange. "These people are dealing with huge amounts of money
and want to be able to predict how different stocks will do."
As fashion becomes a bigger and bigger industry, people will be interested
in predicting trends. "It's absolutely essential," says Mountford.
She also says she would recommend the work to others who enjoy fashion
and working with people. "The most rewarding aspect of the job is meeting
other people. If you don't enjoy that, you won't enjoy this work. This isn't
for the shy, retiring type.
"Our company has clients in many different markets, and so I meet people
from many different industries," she adds. "It's a tremendous career."